Yesterday’s elections were a shock, if not for their results, than for their magnitude. Almost every office that the Democrats had a chance of winning, they won. Elections that were supposed to be nail-biting down to the very end were declared early in the night and won by wide margins. Democrats generally underperform in the midterm elections and do even worse in odd years. This year has proved to be an exception to this rule. This begs the question: will this rule be broken again next year? While one election doesn’t guarantee the results of the next, it does indicate a trend. It’s clear that Democrats are consolidating their gains, however fractured they might remain, while Republicans are floundering while grappling with the question of how to run with Donald Trump as the head of their party.
Tuesday night’s biggest surprises were in Virginia. The gubernatorial election that polls had shown to be neck and neck, was called by 8 PM. Ralph Northam, the Democratic now governor-elect, won with ease and an ample margin of nearly 9%. It appears that Democrats may also capture the Virginia House of Delegates, which they have not controlled for more than a decade, having won at least 14 previously Republican-held seats. Virginia also elected its first transgender representative, a step forward for a state that was fighting interracial marriage just 50 years ago. Northam’s tidy win, as well as increased Democratic strength, in the Virginia House demonstrates Virginia’s shift from its past as a Republican stronghold. While this transition hasn’t made Virginia a Democratic bastion, this recent election certainly shows that Virginia’s votes for Obama were not flukes.
While Virginia was the most remarkable of yesterday’s election, it was not the only gain for the Democrats who not only won more representation in conservative statehouses across the country but consolidated previous gains in traditionally Democratic areas. The Democrat handily won the New Jersey election, freeing New Jersey of Chris Christie after eight years of horror. Bill DeBlasio handily won re-election as the Mayor of New York with a mandate to continue implementing his vision of a progressive city. This election we’re not astonishing in their results by any means. But they, along with the more surprising elections in more conservative areas, demonstrate two things. Firstly, Democrats can win in off years. Democrats rarely do well in the midterms, let alone odd-year elections. But they did extraordinarily well last night. If Democrats run strong campaigns, they can win, even in traditionally conservative areas. Secondly, Trump is toxic to Republicans. The Republican candidate for governor in Virginia did his best to appeal to Trump voters, be not only failed in this pursuit but pushed away traditionally Republican moderate voters who dislike Trump. All throughout the country Trump is galvanizing the Democrats through increased Democratic and decreased Republican turnout. This bodes well for the Democrats in 2018. Republicans, on the other hand, must grapple with how to run a campaign that pleases their base without pushing away moderate voters. Unless they overcome these difficulties, if they can at all, their chances in 2018 are slim.
Unless something drastically changes in the next year, 2018 will be a blowout for the Democrats. Yesterday exemplifies that the Democrats are capable of winning in off years in conservative areas and the Republicans don’t know how to cope with their President. Under these conditions, only a Democratic victory in 2018 can be reasonably predicted.
Liberal Talking Head 